Wednesday, February 06, 2008

What an Attack on Iran Really Means: Communication Blackout before the Strike

What an Attack on Iran Really Means: Communication Blackout before the Strike

Some important events have taken place that need to be addressed.

First is the news that four major underwater Internet cables have been cut in the last few days, sending large portions of the Middle East into communication blackout. Second is the ‘coincidence’ between these Internet disruptions and the scheduled opening of the Iranian oil bourse, which will establish trade of “oil products in non-dollar currencies”, completely collapsing the US economy.

It has been said by many that truth is the first casualty of war, and the best way warring nations can make sure that truth remains hidden is to control the dissemination of information. This however has proven to be impossible since the advent of the Internet, as is evident with the latest news that weblogs are ranking higher than mainstream media news sources. If control is impossible then the only choice left is to prevent the flow of information from taking place. This is where the deliberate sabotage of these fiber optic cables comes in. As can been seen in the diagram below, these cables are very well protected, therefore it is virtually impossible for four such cables to have been severed, all in the same week, by chance.


click map to enlarge - source

The analysis so far has been that these cables were cut by the United States or Israel before the inevitable attack on Iran or another ‘hostile’ country in the Middle East. These are speculations, however one thing is certain, the cables were not cut by accident. Considering that the United States, and Israel by proxy, have everything to lose if the Iranian oil bourse becomes a reality, and that they are one of the few parties capable of conducting such an elaborate operation, then most analysts are justified in their speculations, specially if you consider that United States military bases now surround Iran.


click map to enlarge - source

Could this be the last gasp of an Empire? It could possibly well be, but we will leave the speculation of why and who cut these communication lines until further information becomes available. What we will do is consider what an attack on Iran really means, since the United States and Israel have indicated many times that their target is Iran.

A few months ago, Gwynne Dyer, one of the most respected military analysts in the world, outlined a scenario of possible events that would transpire if the United States attacked Iran in an article entitled ‘Bush's hawks size up Iran’. I can only assume that since Mr. Dyer’s commentaries are syndicated to so many newspapers around the world, he is restricted by space, and limited to a certain number of words. This allows him to describe only the minimum consequences of certain conflicts. In this article especially, he happens to describe the best case scenario that one could envision: A catastrophic global economic collapse that will force the United States to halt its bombardment of Iran. The end result of which would be that the “US would suffer a far greater humiliation than it did in Vietnam, while Iran would emerge as the undisputed arbiter of the region”.

To meet his editorial guidelines and save space, what Mr. Dyer must have left on the cutting room floor are the following:

  1. The boundaries that we see on world maps marking the territories of countries are just what we see: lines on a piece of paper. Iranians are not confined to lines drawn by European powers decades ago. Iranians live not only in Iran but also, en masse, in all the countries in the region. Certain parts of Iran’s neighbors even speak dialects of Farsi. So if the United States bombs Iran, since there is no way they have any intentions of invading, they would be declaring war on parts of every country surrounding Iran. This would mean that the United States would be at war with every country in the region since civil war would breakout in all the US installed puppet regimes. This could explain why the United States has created a a new map of the Middle East.

  2. click map to enlarge - source

  3. Not only are Iranians spread out in the region, they are also living, en masse, in the rest of the world. The Iranian Diaspora Population map shows that approximately 2.5 million live in the US alone, 700,000 in the Canada, 300,000 in the UK, and 2 million in India. If a war breakouts between the US and Iran then what transpired with the internment of Japanese Americans and Canadians during World War II will become a distant memory and a travesty that will be repeated. A question does come to mind however; will a nation of Christians and non-Muslims be able to prevent genocide during this World War? I personally doubt it, because the thread from those who are of Middle Eastern descent will be a real one that Western governments will exploit.


    click map to enlarge - source

    It also appears that the United States has already prepared for this scenario. 800 FEMA prison camps which are fully operational and ready to receive prisoners have already been built.

  4. Mr. Dyer goes on to state that Iran could stop exporting oil and/or “get tough and close down all oil-tanker traffic that comes within range of (its) missiles–which would mean little or no oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, or the smaller Gulf states”. This is a very likely scenario, but what exactly does this “global oil rationing, industrial shutdowns, and the end of the present economic era” mean? One way to fully understand the impact of such an event is to look at Africa. The population of Africa at the present is approximately 1 billion. According to a recent presentation at a United Nations conference, it is estimated that “nearly 75% of the continent could come to rely on some sort of food aid by 2025”. If there is “global oil rationing” then it is safe to assume that feeding Africans would become a low priority operation for the rest of the world. This would mean that 750 million people could starve to death in Africa.
  5. Just to put things into perspective, making sure that it is fully understood what the impact of an attack on Iran really means, consider this. The United States has already stated that they will use nuclear weapons in an aerial bombardment campaign against Iran. Since the creation of the atomic bomb, it has been accepted that once nuclear weapons are used again in any war, then they will continue to be used until there is no one left to kill. As the saying goes, you do not bring a knife to a gunfight, so once a nuclear weapon has been used on any country then that country and its people have a right to use unclear weapons in retaliation. Albert Einstein once said, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones”. I personally hope that we will not fulfill Einstein’s prophecy.

After reading countless articles by Mr. Dyer, I now finally understand how he has been able to educate so many people over the years. He presents an optimistic point of view, making his work accessible to the majority.

Gwynne Dyer’s commentary on Iran was not meant to let us know how many people would die if the US attacked Iran, it was meant to let us know who would win. He predicts that Iran would end up being the victor. However, considering that hundreds of millions of people would actually die if the US starts a war with Iran, my conclusion is that no one would be the winner of such a conflict.

So even though Mr. Dyer’s allure appears to be his optimistic analysis of the final outcome of conflicts between warring nations, I do not believe hoping for the best case scenario will manifest the least amount of death and destruction.

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