In this Blog I will discuss Life the Universe and Everything, and maybe even Prairie Home Companion.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Leaked: "Strikingly Negative" Iraq Report Leaked To Preempt White House Doc
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Christian Zionist Promote Iran War To Bring About Armageddon
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'Bin Laden' Options Trades Have Wall Street Whispering
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Bush Loses War on Terrorism; Begins War on Iran
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Leaked US report stresses Iraq failures
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Katrina and the White House, federal government, and FEMA brands
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Rewritten surveillance law could give Bush more power for domestic wiretaps
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Homeland Security Expert Asks: What could we do with $456,278,478,000?
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US refuses all 'friendly fire' inquest requests
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Union: Mexican Trucks Begin Crossing Border Saturday
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Audit Gives Iraq Leaders Failing Grade
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The Great Iraq Swindle: War Profiteering 101
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ABC censors Kucinich out of Debate, Poll Results, and Website AGAIN
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US calls arrest of Iranians after Bush speech 'a regrettable incident'
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Fed Underestimated Debt Impact, Focused on Inflation
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Ron Paul: Iran Attack in a Year?
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Teamsters will ask court to block letting Mexican trucks into U.S.
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Bush Talks Of Iran's 'Murderous Activities' - Ignores His
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Al-Sadr suspends militia activity in Iraq; Will not attack American forces
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Bush Wants $50 Billion More for Iraq War on top of about $460 billion
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Has Bush Boxed Himself In?
By Pat Buchanan
08/29/07 "Creators Syndicate" -- - As Americans anguish over how to extricate this country from Iraq without a disaster greater than what we now have, and without our friends suffering the fate of our friends in Cambodia and Vietnam, they had best brace themselves. This escalator is going up.
and his generals are laying out the case for a new war. And there has been no resistance offered either by a vacationing Congress or the major presidential candidates.
On CNN's "Late Edition" Sunday, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, No. 2 commander in Iraq, said, "It is clear to me that (the Iranians) have been stepping up their support" for enemy fighters in Iraq.
"They do it from providing weapons, ammunition, specifically mortars and explosively formed projectiles. ... They are conducting training within Iran of Iraqi extremists to come back here and fight the United States."
Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch said his troops were following 50 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, who have been crossing the border and training fighters in Iraq. The State Department is about to declare the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.
Earlier in August, President Bush directly charged Tehran with aiding Iraqi insurgents who are killing U.S. soldiers:
"I asked Ambassador Crocker to meet with Iranians inside Iraq ... to send the message that there will be consequences for ... people transporting, delivering EFPs, highly sophisticated IEDs, that kill American troops."
The EFPs are roadside bombs that penetrate Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Abrams tanks. They have taken the lives of scores of U.S. soldiers.
Whether Bush has made the decision to attack the al Quds training camps inside Iran, he has painted himself into a corner.
If he does not strike the camps, he will be mocked by the War Party as a weak commander in chief, too timid to use U.S. power to protect soldiers he sent into battle or to punish those killing them.
Thus, Bush must either announce that his diplomacy has worked, and attacks out of Iran have diminished or been halted, or he will have to explain why the Top Gun of the carrier Lincoln was too wimpish to do his duty by the soldiers he sent to fight.
Who is pushing for attacks on Iran? Israel and its lobby. Vice President Cheney. Sen. Joe Lieberman, who has been calling for air strikes on Al Quds camps for months. And a War Party facing lasting disgrace for having lied the country into an unnecessary war, and for having assured the American people it would be a "cakewalk."
The arguments for war on Iran are both strategic and political.
Israel is terrified Iran will end its nuclear monopoly in the Middle East and wants an all-out U.S. war on Iran to prevent it. The War Party fears Iran may acquire a nuclear weapon, which would inhibit U.S. freedom of action in the Gulf and convince the Arab states that the United States is yesterday and they must appease Iran or go nuclear themselves.
As for Bush and Cheney, if they go home without hitting Iran's nuclear sites, and Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, the Bush Doctrine will have been defied by the Ayatollah as well as Kim Jong-il, and their legacy will be a no-win war in Iraq.
The War Party is thus seeking an excuse to launch air strikes on Iran, as that would trigger Iranian counterstrikes on our forces. Then they will have their long-sought casus belli for U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
First, the al Quds camps, then Natanz, Isfahan and Bushewr.
Initially, Americans might cheer the bombing of Iran, and Congress would head for the tall grass. But as U.S. strikes would be an act of war, rallying the Iranians behind the failing regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and igniting a long war the end of which we cannot see and the troops for which we do not have, there are powerful arguments against a new war.
Iran and the United States would both pay a hellish price, and Iran at least seems to recognize it. Both the Iraqi and Afghan governments say Iran is behaving as a good neighbor. There is evidence Tehran's nuclear program is faltering, or being curbed. Iran is said to be making concessions to U.N. inspectors.
Iran has released an American seized in response to our seizure of five Iranian "diplomats" in Iraq. Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, in a letter to the Washington Post, denies Iran is aiding the Iraqi insurgency and calls on the U.S. government to "proffer evidence" and "provide the list of Iranian agents who it alleges are operating in Iraq."
If there is a rush to war here, it is not on the part of Iran.
As Bush is preparing for war on Iran, if he has not already decided on war, where is Congress, which alone has the constitutional power to authorize a war?
Or has it given Bush and Cheney another blank check?
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Bush Heads to Gulf Coast, Still Misleading on How Little He Sent to Rebuild
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Inflation crunch could hit world economies
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Pot Growers Are New Target in "War on Terror"
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CheneyBush's "Mercenary" Legions
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More Investors Are Betting on Stock Market Doomsday Scenario
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Who's profiting from the Iraq war?
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CAIR: Media Cowers in Face of Islamist Threat
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The airlines lied to Congress and the public
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Fleischer blames Dems for Gonzales' mistakes
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Gonzales's Exit Gives Democrats Advantage in White House Probes
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Obstacles Keep Iraqi Refugees From U.S.
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Markets Mauled
Markets fell hard and wide Tuesday, as a combination of bad news and low volume reminded Wall Street of the uncertainty plaguing investors, despite the relative stability of the past few days.
While dropping throughout the day, the Dow Jones industrial average took an especially steep dive in the last hour of trading to close down 2.1%, or 280.28 points, to 13,041.85, with the Nasdaq Composite Index finishing down 2.4%, or 60.61 points, to 2,500.64, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index falling 2.4%, or 34.43 points, to 1,432.36.
All in all, it's the kind of day that might make adherents to the Goldilocks scenario--that the markets are "just right"--reconsider their belief in fairy tales.
“There was more bad news than good news,” said Jefferies analyst Art Hogan, in an understatement, adding that investors were reminded they’re not out of the woods yet.
Financials led the way after Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people ) published a report downgrading Bear Stearns (nyse: BSC - news - people ), Lehman Brothers (nyse: LEH - news - people ), and Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ).
Hogan also noted Wall Street was also shaken by reports surrounding Barclays (nyse: BCS - news - people )’ exposure to credit issues (See "Barclays Sinks On Sachsen Worries").
Wall Street also extended its retreat on Tuesday as investors cautiously awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting, hoping it would provide insight into whether it may cut rates.
Analysts said there was little news to send prices sharply lower. But the market's overall difficult mood since the turbulence of earlier in August, coupled with light volume, helped skew price swings—especially ahead of the Fed report.
Hogan argued the news was coupled with the Tuesday’s announcement from the Conference Board that its Consumer Confidence index slipped to 105.0 in August from 11.9 in July, spurred by falling home prices (See “Housing Hits Consumer Confidence”)
Economists expected a reading of 104.5.
Although the index dropped, Birinyi Associates research analyst Cleveland Rueckert argued instead that because the result beat expectations, he does not believe the announcement had too much of an influence on Tuesday’s movement.
“We haven’t had this kind of day in a while,” Hogan said. “And it’s not surprising with a low volume day in the summer.”
Rueckert looks to mid-September, when financial companies begin to release their quarterly earnings report, and “Wall Street gets a better idea of what’s going on and who is exposed to what.”
As previously noted, the Financial sector was hit hard as Lehman Brothers fell 6.0%, or $3.47, to $54.28, Bear Stearns dropped 3.4%, or $3.37, to $108.42, and Citigroup lowered 3.5%, or $1.65, to $46.14.
In the energy sector, Exxon Mobil (nyse: XOM - news - people ) fell 2.5%, or $2.12, to $83.00 and Chevron (nyse: CVX - news - people ) dropped 3.1%, or $2.70, to $84.30.
The industrials and materials sector also dropped, as Boeing (nyse: BA - news - people ) lowered 2.9%, or $2.89, to $95.65, Caterpillar (nyse: CAT - news - people ) dropped 2.4%, or $1.79, and $74.21, and Lockheed Martin (nyse: LMT - news - people ) tumbled 4.5%, or $4.62, to $97.79.
Brace yourself for the insolvency crunch
The liquidity crunch is not yet over: the insolvency crunch has hardly begun.
Repercussions will follow for the man on the street
Yes, investors are jumping back into the stock markets, hoping this is just another routine shake-out - much like February 2007, or May 2006 - before the rally resumes. The `buy-on-dips’ orthodoxy dies hard.
And yes, speculators have renewed their leveraged bets on the yen and Swiss franc carry trades, borrowing cheap in Tokyo and Zurich to play global assets. The core belief is that nothing has really changed, that the world economy is still in rude good health.
Be very careful. Interest rates in Europe and Asia are that much higher now, with delayed effects starting to bite hard. Japan’s economy has stalled to 0.1pc growth in Q2; the euro-zone has slowed to 0.3pc; and China’s refusal to import (by currency manipulation) makes it a drain on world demand. Above all, the credit bubble that perpetuated the rally of the last eighteen months beyond its natural life has definitively burst.
Credit spreads on the iTraxx Crossover (a good barometer of corporate bonds) have ballooned 180 basis points since February. The cost of borrowing for most firms in Europe and North America has jumped from circa 6.5pc to 8.3pc, if they can get it.
Many cannot. Germany’s Chamber of Industry told me yesterday that it had been flooded with distress calls from family Mittlestand firms unable to roll over credit lines. In Canada and Australia, junior mining finance has dried up almost entirely.
Global junk bond issuance has been frozen for two months. Fresh sales of collateralized debt obligations – the CDOs of subprime notoriety: a $1 trillion sold last year - have all but stopped. Banks have yet to off-load $300bn of debt from leveraged buy-out deals, forcing them to keep the liabilities on their books. They are all snake-bitten now.
The private equity buy-out premium – which pushed up the price/earnings ratio on the MSCI-600 of “median” stocks to a record high of 20 in May - has vanished. The P/E ratios on the DOW 30 big stocks are much lower – because they are too big even for the big cat predators, KKR and Carlysle – but they are not low, given the late stage of the cycle. In reality, an earnings bubble and ultra-cheap credit have flattered profits.
So no, the world has changed, dramatically. Whether this means a protracted global downturn and a “profits recession” depends on how quickly the central banks choose to respond, and how far they are willing to go.
Ben Bernanke is looking hawkish to me, given the shock of what happened on Monday when yields on 3-month US Treasury notes plunged at the fastest pace ever recorded, a panic flight to safety that no living trader had ever seen before.
Why? Because trust had collapsed to such a degree that players with a lot of cash no longer believed it safe to leave wealth in bank accounts, or the money market funds of brokerage companies - (exposed as they are to short-term commercial paper and subprime CDOs). This did not occur after 9/11, or in the heat of the October 1987 crash. Nor did was there such a banking panic in October 1929. (it hit in August 1931). If you think this is of no importance, or that this will pass swiftly, you have a strong nerve.
“When you have a run on the money markets like this, it is bound to spill over into the real economy,” said Albert Edwards, global strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort.
“We already thought there was a 40pc chance of a US recession before all this happened, but the risks are now much higher and don’t forget that rates on adjustable mortgages will keep rising until a peak next March, so the maximum pain will be in the second and third quarters of 2008,” he said
“There will be large bankruptcies, and liquidity is not going to help because too many people bet the farm at the top of the cycle, and they’re now insolvent. A lot more bodies are going to be floating to the surface before this is over,” he said.
The belief that Europe would somehow be insulated has been tested over the last two weeks. Two German banks have required bail-outs on subprime bets – Sachsen LB for Eu 17.3bn, IKB for Eu 8.1bn.
Alexander Stuhlmann, boss of WestLB, confessed that the German banking system was in a "not uncritical situation". Jochen Sanio, head of the German regulator BaFin, said a few days earlier that the country faced the worst banking crisis 1931.
Hence the continued actions of the European Central Bank, which has quietly injected 85bn euros in extra liquidity so far this week, almost as much as it did on the first day of emergency stimulus in early August.
“Banks are still thirsty for credit, and the spreads have been amazing. This is not business as usual at all,” said Julian Callow, chief Eurozone economist for Barclays Capital and an expert in the arcane field of central bank operations. (He used to work for the Bank of England.)
To clarify: the ECB allotted an extra Eu 45bn extra through a `weekly refi’ on Tuesday; and then Eu 40bn in a 3-month offer on Wednesday to stop the short-term commercial paper market seizing up.
What we know is that 146 banks bid for loans on Wednesday, some clearly in such distress that they were willing to pay up to 5pc interest – a full 1pc above the ECB’s benchmark rate.
Just like the dotcom bust: when the US sneezes, Europe catches… you know the rest.
In a warped sense, one has to admire the cool way that Americans – who save nothing, in aggregate – tapped into the vast savings pool of thrifty Germans to finance their speculative excesses, and then left the creditors holding a chunk of the subprime losses.
Was it sharp practice, in the same way that foreigners were recruited by Lloyds of London in 1986 and 1987 – before the impending asbestos losses were known – and place like cannon fodder on “spiral syndicates” to absorb crippling losses? (Lloyds denies this occurred).
I am endebted to Randall W.Forsyth from Barron’s for this delicious quote from a hedge-fund operator, recounting with disgust what happened this time in a letter to clients.
'Real money' (U.S. insurance companies, pension funds, etc.) accounts had stopped purchasing mezzanine tranches of U.S. subprime debt in late 2003 and [Wall Street] needed a mechanism that could enable them to 'mark up' these loans, package them opaquely, and EXPORT THE NEWLY PACKAGED RISK TO UNWITTING BUYERS IN ASIA AND CENTRAL EUROPE!!!!
"These CDOs were the only way to get rid of the riskiest tranches of subprime debt. Interestingly enough, these buyers (mainland Chinese banks, the Chinese Government, Taiwanese banks, Korean banks, German banks, French banks, U.K. banks) possess the 'excess' pools of liquidity around the globe. These pools are basically derived from two sources: 1) massive trade surpluses with the U.S. in U.S. dollars, 2) petrodollar recyclers. These two pools of excess capital are U.S. dollar-denominated and have had a virtually insatiable demand for U.S. dollar-denominated debt . . . until now.
More Iran news
President Ahmadinejad: Political might of Iraq's occupiers is braking up: "I truly declare that the political power of occupiers is on the decline and the region will witness the emergence of a big power," underlined the president. "We are ready to help restore security of the region through collective cooperation with our regional friends and Saudi Arabia," he pointed out.
Bush warns Iran over insurgents : In a speech to US war veterans in Reno, Nevada, Mr Bush renewed charges that Tehran has provided training and weapons for extremists in Iraq. "The Iranian regime must halt these actions," he said.
Bush warns of 'holocaust' if Iran gets nukes : US President George W Bush warned today that letting Iran acquire atomic weapons risked putting the Middle East 'under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust.'
Pat Buchanan: Democrats will fall in line with 'popular' war on Iran: "They're laying down a predicate for military strikes on the al-Quds camps inside Iran. ... And I think then they'd go for the nuclear sites. "
Study: US preparing 'massive' military attack against Iran: The United States has the capacity for and may be prepared to launch without warning a massive assault on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities, as well as government buildings and infrastructure, using long-range bombers and missiles, according to a new analysis.
Ahmadinejad: Iran to give crushing response to any possible hostile actions: He went on to say that Iraqi occupiers do not favor unity among regional nations and want to pit them against one another so as to continue their presence in Iraq.
Iran 'resolves' plutonium issue : Iran has resolved questions posed by the UN's nuclear watchdog about its plutonium experiments, Tehran says.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Washington Times acknowledges reckless GOP spending
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Iraqi refugees are 'forgotten people': World Vision
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The Fed's Subprime "Solution"
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President Ahmadinejad Says Iran Ready to Fill Power Vacuum in Iraq
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Letterman: Gonzales stepping down but 'can't recall' why
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Congressman wants ISPs to be Copyright Police
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Gonzales' replacement - there won't be any nominee.
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Gonzales Goes But Investigation Must Continue
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Bush Gets Away with Lies, Lies and More Lies in History-Illiterate America
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How many Bush administration officials does it take to change a light bulb?
The answer is seven:
* One to deny that a light bulb needs to be replaced.
* One to attack and question the patriotism of
anyone who has questions about the light bulb.
* One to blame the previous administration for
the need of a new light bulb.
* One to arrange the invasion of a country rumored
to have a secret stockpile of light bulbs.
* One to get together with Vice President Cheney
and figure out how to overpay Halliburton one
million dollars for each light bulb.
* One to arrange a photo-op session showing
Bush changing the light bulb while dressed in a
flight suit and wrapped in an American flag.
* And finally, one to explain to Bush the difference
between screwing a light bulb and screwing the
country. [anon]
US ambassador to UN: Middle East turmoil could cause world war
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Edwards wants law against ''Brownies''
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The Pot-Pushing "Terrorists" Under Your Bed
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The Nation -- Gonzales Goes But Investigation Must Continue
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Bush appointed high ranking defense official under investigation
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CNN: Bush Plans To Install High School Friend Clay Johnson At DHS
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About-face on Iran coming?
A new US strategy for victory in Iraq may be in the works
By Hassan Nafaa
08/27/07 "Al-Ahram" -- - That the US is knee-deep trouble in Iraq is hardly in dispute. Few inside or outside the US contest that fact or doubt the reasons that led to it. And yet, some still argue that the whole thing is little more than correctable "mistakes" by a reckless administration. Others wonder if a face-saving exit is still possible. But at least a few maintain that a "strategic victory" is attainable in Iraq.
For a long time, the current US administration refused even to admit committing mistakes in Iraq. For a long time, it maintained that victory was around the corner. The admission that a real problem exists came hesitantly and late. It came only after the Baker-Hamilton Commission issued its well-known report last year. Even then, the current administration kept arguing that the problems it was facing in Iraq were no more than "snags" attributed to "tactical errors" that can be corrected and that a complete and unambiguous victory was not to be ruled out. In short, the US administration rejected the prognosis offered by the Commission and went on doing things its own way.
The commission said that the situation in Iraq would get worse unless a major policy change occurred. It reviewed a number of options, but ruled them all out because of concern for the US reputation and Iraq's stability. Those options included: quick withdrawal from Iraq, maintaining the current policies with no change, increasing the number of troops, or dividing Iraq into three parts. After excluding those options, the report suggested a new policy based on two components. The first component was external, involving a "new diplomatic offensive" to rally international support and help Iraq.
The second component was internal, focusing on helping Iraq help itself. The commission made 78 recommendations, suggesting that the US launch a diplomatic offensive in an attempt to reassure the world that the US was not after Iraq's oil and didn't want to have military bases in that country against the wishes of its people.
It made two main conclusions. One was that the US couldn't get out of the Iraqi morass without the help of others. The second was that the Middle East crises were interlinked, and the US needed to address all of them simultaneously. The report urged the current administration to build bridges with both Syria and Iran and make a renewed bid to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.
But the US administration went for the exact opposite. Instead of gradually reducing its fighting troops and redeploying them outside turbulent Iraqi towns, the US administration decided to increase troops and send them into more battles inside turbulent areas in the hope of quashing or at least weakening the resistance.
Instead of courting Iran and Syria, the US administration decided to tighten sanctions against them and isolate them internationally. And instead of doing more to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict, a matter that would have required serious pressures on Israel and attempts to unify the Palestinian position, the US administration decided to alienate Hamas and impose a stricter blockade on the Palestinian people. The US administration blocked all attempts to unify Palestinian factions and encouraged Israel to adopt hard-line and belligerent policies.
This approach, which hardly differed from earlier US policies, deepened the dilemma of the US administration. As a result, the security and military situation in Iraq got worse. And the Lebanon war last year didn't, as some hoped, weaken "the axis of the extremists" in the region. On the contrary, Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas, and Jihad emerged stronger, while pro- US forces looked hapless and lame. Consequently, the US administration found itself in a more awkward place than it was at the time the Baker-Hamilton Commission was issued two years ago. All the US administration did was waste time and money to no avail.
Because the US administration knows that time is running out, it has to do one of two things. Either it accepts defeat and pulls out immediately, which would damage the US standing as a superpower. Or it escalates the confrontation through an all-out attack on the "axis of the extremists." The latter option cannot be ruled out, considering how rightwing and dogmatic this administration is and how inept is the man who leads it. The only problem is that this second option is too perilous, for the prospects of a decisive victory are nil in the long run.
Some members of the neoconservative US elite, who haven't yet despaired of winning the war in Iraq, are now busy looking for a third option. Among the barrage of ideas that surfaced of late, the views of William S Lind are interesting. Lind is the director of the Centre for Cultural Conservatism at the Free Congress Foundation. He summed up his views on the Iraqi debacle in an article published 30 July in The American Conservative under the title, "How to win in Iraq".
In that article, Lind notes that the US administration still defines victory as it did at the war's outset: an Iraq that is an American satellite, friendly to Israel, happy to provide the US with a limitless supply of oil and vast military bases from which American forces can dominate the region. None of these objectives, he argues, are now attainable. Lind believes that the attempts to quell urban disturbances in Iraq are based on the wrong assumptions. He argues that the war can still be won on a strategic level, not through "small tactical gains." Lind suggests that the new US strategy must employ what the British military theorist Basil Liddell-Hart called an "indirect approach."
The threat facing the US is not coming from any state, but from a collection of groups using non-conventional methods commonly labelled "terrorism", Lind argues. Such groups can only flourish in situations where governments are weak. He calls for a new strategy of three elements to win the war on a "strategic" level.
The first element is to engage Iran in a rapprochement, just as the US did with China in the early 1970s. At the time, China was creating more than one Vietnam in order to sap the US power. Likewise, the groups hostile to the US are trying to create more than one Iraq in order to baffle the Americans. Lind believes that it would be hard to undermine such groups without having a strong government in Iraq, which requires rapprochement with Iran. He admits that pro-Iranian Shiites may end up dominating the Iraqi government, but that should not be a problem so long as a strong Iraqi state evolves.
The second element of Lind's strategy is to allow the Sadr group, which is popular in Iraqi streets, to achieve its full political potential. The US will have to pay a price for that, such as giving up the prospect of military bases in Iraq. So far, the US has been trying to suppress the Sadr group while favouring unpopular, pro-American groups. This approach, Lind says, has weakened successive governments and reduced their ability to control the situation on the ground. Lind admits there is no guarantee Al-Sadr would be able to form a strong Iraqi government, but the chance is worth taking. The US administration, he says, must allow Al-Sadr, or anyone who can, to establish a strong government in Iraq.
The third element of the strategy is to withdraw all US forces within 12-18 months. This move would provide enough time for Al-Sadr or other parties to put together a government. This wouldn't be the withdrawal of a defeated army, Lind argues, but a step toward strategic victory. Withdrawal would be good for the army and for the US public, he argues.
The above strategy may exacerbate the Sunni- Shiite divisions not just in Iraq but across the region, but Lind is not worried about that. In fact, he believes those divisions might prove beneficial to the new US strategy in the region.
These are quite disturbing proposals. Lind's ideas entail certain risks to the Arab world and Iran. Admittedly, Tehran may be temporarily pleased to see a friendly government in Iraq, but the cost may prove too high. The US is likely to use Shiite-Sunni divisions to turn Sunni Arab countries against Iran. The main beneficiary of Lind's proposed strategy would be Israel and the US. The implications for the Sunnis and the Shiites are frightening. It seems that the US is heading toward a dual containment policy of both Shiite fundamentalism and Sunni Wahhabism. So perhaps this is time for Shias and Sunnis, as well as Arabs and Iranians, to sit together and talk.
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